Sun and Fun in the Crimea

I sort of vaguely want to say "I told ya so!" regarding Russia and the Ukraine, but I haven't truly earned it.

In my post, Maidan, I mentioned only briefly that while I was hopeful for the future, I knew that the wheel turned, yadda yadda... and then I avoided posting on the topic, because I don't want to be the creepy Ukraine Guy of the internet or something, I do have other interests.

So, as I read increasingly optimistic news reports about the Ukraine, I avoided saying... here come the Russians...

So, no I didn't actually tell anyone so but a few friends who tolerate my sudden passions for esoteric topics.

But I did predict it, even in the Maidan Post, I knew Russia's interests in Kiev would draw them into the conflict somehow.  But I'm not an expert on former soviet republics, so I didn't know when I wrote that Crimea was part of the Ukraine, I just assumed it was part of Russia, and yes, that is the sort of general knowledge I claim.

Curiously, I have a distant familial connection to Crimea, the Crimean Dutch, who were exterminated in pogroms by the czars... (also: Does anyone know how to turn off the autocorrect? I had the preferred spelling with the Ts autocorrected four fucking times to "stars", and I have officially had enough of the bullshit!)... back around that 1850's or so, with survivors coming to america.  Now: I've seen old blurry pictures of people walking through fields of the dead in family history books, but general history books seem to... I dunno... forget this happened???   Its all very strange and mysterious to me.  So maybe my ancestors are all dirty fucking liars.

Well, I guess I sort of have some external verification in the history of winter wheat in the midwest, which came from 'germanic' mennonites out of Crimea around that timeframe, and the winter wheat story is also part of that distant family lore (stuffing in a child's doll, like some sort of Lifetime movie cliche, if you can believe it...).

Whatever. The Crimea. See, if I'd known during the time I wrote the Maidan post that the Ukraine held the Crimean I would have included that in my forecasting, but I learned a few days before Russia invaded.  At that point a military intervention was essentially inevitable. Not because it was necessary, but because we are talking Russia here.  This is their version of the Sudentenland, and the Kiev 'revolt' is all the excuse they needed or wanted.

It is amusing to see the old Media twist on their self imposed hooks, blindsided by simple calculus an average idiot could do.  I was going to comment on the naked biases towards socialist politics evident in simple headlines, but I don't want to hammer my points too often.

The world is a relatively simple place to a man willing to look and see with his own eyes.  Mysteries are solved.  This is the problem with ideology, the willingness to Believe, against all logic, anything the favors the cause.

This is why a woman can think that Anarchy is a good idea, when simple logic reveals she is among the class with the very most to lose. This is why Greens think they can stop progress by interrupting a simple means of transportation.  This... is why the old Media and the professional experts on geopolitics could not see that Russia would invade the Ukraine almost EXACTLY the same way they invaded Georgian Ossetia, and for the same damn reasons.

This is why Libertarians cheer at the thought of having a leading Feminist authoritarian as a Keynote Speaker at their conference, why they bare their throats for the fangs of the statist wolf at the door.

Now the question of the hour is if the Crimean will be divided off from the rest of the Ukraine, or Russia will try to swallow the whole country. Which, of course, leads to the question: Will Russia choke on it if they do?

Note that there is a statistically improbable chance that the US/NATO will intervene at all? I mean, its mathematically non-zero... it lies within the realm of human probability, but its not gonna happen.

So, there it is.